Android launching tomorrow in New York.
My guess is that it will do well, however the majority of consumers do not buy operating systems, they buy hardware. Now I know that they are linked up with a Taiwanese company HTC b ut it is still essentially software.
If the Apple phone was any good at actually being used as a phone - they did seem to forget about that bit - then the market might not be so wide open. As it stands, it's game on.